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Bubble Tracker: BYU, Oregon among hottest fringe teams

Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson
USA TODAY Sports
Brigham Young Cougars guard Kyle Collinsworth (5) celebrates with Brigham Young Cougars center Corbin Kaufusi (44) after scoring against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. The Cougars won 73-70.

College basketball wins and losses in November and December matter, but playing well heading into Selection Sunday can really boost the credentials of borderline NCAA tournament teams. How teams play down the stretch, and marquee victories such as BYU's upset of Gonzaga this past weekend are a factor.

On the flip side, there are teams that started off highly ranked but now are reeling. Texas, for example, has lost eight of its last 11 and has regular season games remaining vs. Baylor and Kansas State.

Being hot in March can portend a deep run in the tournament. Of the 18 legitimate bubble teams still sweating until March 15, about half of them are not so hot — like the three on-the-fence teams in the ACC — while the other chunk has much more momentum. Here's a look at the five hottest.

1. BYU (23-8, 13-5 WCC): The Cougars have won six in a row, including this weekend's road victory against Gonzaga. But they're on the outside looking in due to a 75 strength of schedule and five losses in West Coast Conference play. BYU's fate will hinge upon how other bubble teams fare.

2. Oregon (22-8, 12-5 Pac-12): Of the three Pac-12 bubble teams, the Ducks have been playing the best basketball — winning four in a row and eight of nine, including a Feb. 22 victory against Utah and Sunday's road win at fellow bubble team Stanford. With Arizona and Utah overshadowing the rest of the league all season, Oregon has established itself as the third-best team. The Ducks' 34 RPI outweighs their 60 strength of schedule. A win against Oregon State (March 4) to close the season and another win in the Pac-12 tournament should get this continually improving team an at-large bid.

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3. Boise State (22-7, 12-4 Mountain West): The Broncos have dug themselves out of a hole after a four-game losing streak, winning 12 of their past 13. Their most recent win came at Mountain West front-runner San Diego State. An RPI of 28 helps, but a 95 strength of schedule has the opposite effect. Despite the progress, it's a down year for the MWC, so wins to close the season plus a deep league tournament run would be recommended to secure an at-large bid.

4. Davidson (21-6, 12-4 Atlantic 10): The Wildcats have won seven consecutive games to vault to the top of the Atlantic 10 standings. If the Wildcats get in, they have the ingredients — nearly five players averaging double-figures — to make a tournament impact. A 114 strength of schedule and losses to St. Bonaventure and Saint Joseph's don't do this team any favors. Plus, their signature win came against Dayton.

5. Iowa (19-10, 10-6 Big Ten): The Hawkeyes seem safe to make the NCAA tournament (thanks to a 47 RPI and 34 SoS) barring a significant collapse. They've also put together a four-game winning streak in Big Ten play. Granted, it hasn't been against the league's top-tier teams, but wins in late February and early March only build confidence for when it matters most.

Also heating up: Tulsa, Georgia, Kansas State.

Bubble Tracker conference-by-conference breakdowns of the strength and weaknesses of borderline teams. Data as of March 2. (Results/records shown are against Division I opponents only).

In: SMU

Probable: None

Bubble team résumés

(IN) Temple: 20-9 (11-5), 40 RPI, 69 SoS

The Good: Win vs. Kansas and Cincinnati

The Bad: Loss vs. St. Joseph's

(IN) Cincinnati: 20-9 (11-5), 50 RPI, 72 SoS

The Good: Win vs. San Diego State, N.C. State, SMU (twice) and Temple

The Bad: Losses vs. Nebraska, East Carolina and Tulane

(IN) Tulsa: 21-6 (14-2), 30 RPI, 100 SoS

The Good: Win vs. Temple (twice)

The Bad: Loss vs. Oral Roberts

In: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame

Probable: None

Bubble team résumés

(IN) North Carolina State: 17-12 (8-8), 53 RPI, 5 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Boise St., Pittsburgh, Duke, Louisville and North Carolina

The Bad: Losses vs. Wake Forest and Boston College

(OUT) Pittsburgh: 18-11 (8-8), 49 RPI, 37 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Notre Dame, North Carolina and Syracuse

The Bad: Losses vs. Hawaii, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest

(OUT) Miami: 18-11 (8-8), 71 RPI, 59 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Illinois, Duke, N.C. State and Syracuse

The Bad: Losses vs. Eastern Kentucky Florida State and Georgia Tech

In: VCU

Probable: Dayton

Bubble team résumés

(IN) Davidson: 20-6 (12-4), 43 RPI, 114 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. UMass, Dayton and Rhode Island

The Bad: Losses vs. St. Joseph's and St. Bonaventure

In: Villanova, Butler

Probable: Providence, Georgetown, Xavier, St. Johns

Bubble: None.

In: Wisconsin, Maryland

Probable: Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State

Bubble team résumés

(IN) Iowa: 19-10 (10-6), 47 RPI, 34 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Ohio State (twice), Maryland, North Carolina and Illinois

The Bad: Losses vs. Syracuse, Purdue and Northwestern

(IN) Purdue: 19-10 (11-5), 57 RPI, 68 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. BYU, N.C. State, Michigan, Iowa, Indiana (twice) and Ohio State

The Bad: Losses vs. Kansas State, North Florida, Vanderbilt, Gardner-Webb and Minnesota

(OUT) Illinois: 18-11 (8-8), 59 RPI, 50 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, Maryland and Michigan State

The Bad: Losses vs. Michigan, Nebraska and Minnesota.

In: Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Probable: None

Bubble team résumés

(OUT) Texas: 17-12 (6-10), 46 RPI, 14 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Iowa and West Virginia

The Bad: No bad losses

(OUT) Kansas State: 15-15 (8-9), 78 RPI, 10 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Purdue, Texas A&M, Oklahoma (twice), Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Iowa State

The Bad: Losses vs. Long Beach State, Tennessee, Texas Southern, Texas Tech and TCU

In: San Diego State

Probable: None

Bubble team résumés

(IN) Colorado State: 23-5 (11-5), 26 RPI, 117 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Boise State and San Diego State

The Bad: Losses vs. New Mexico and Wyoming (twice)

(IN) Boise State: 20-7 (12-4), 28 RPI, 95 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Colorado State, St. Mary's and San Diego State

The Bad: Losses vs. Loyola (Chicago), Utah State, Wyoming and Fresno State

In: Arizona, Utah

Probable: None

Bubble team résumés

(IN) Oregon: 21-8 (12-5), 34 RPI, 60 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Illinois, UCLA, Utah and Stanford

The Bad: Losses vs. Michigan and Washington State

(OUT) Stanford: 18-10 (9-7), 56 RPI, 57 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Wofford and Texas

The Bad: Losses vs. DePaul, Washington State and Colorado

(OUT): UCLA 18-12 (10-7), 52 RPI, 23 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Stanford (twice), Utah and Oregon

The Bad: Losses vs. Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado and Arizona State

In: Kentucky, Arkansas

Probable: LSU

Bubble team résumés

(IN) Georgia: 19-9 (10-6), 35 RPI, 43 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Ole Miss (twice) and Texas A&M

The Bad: Losses vs. Georgia Tech, South Carolina (twice) and Auburn

(IN) Texas A&M: 20-8 (11-5), 33 RPI, 74 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. LSU (twice), Tennessee and Florida

The Bad: Loss vs. Kansas State

(IN) Ole Miss: 19-10 (10-6), 48 RPI, 42 SoS

The Good: Wins vs. Cincinnati, Oregon, Arkansas, Florida (twice) and Texas A&M

The Bad: Losses vs. TCU and Charleston Southern

Others – assume these teams do not win their conference tourney and secure the auto-bid.

In: Gonzaga, Wichita State, Northern Iowa

Probable: None

Bubble: BYU (out), ODU (out), Wofford (out)

***

Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist:Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He's predicted for The Indianapolis Star and collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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