College Football Countdown | No. 13: USC

After dipping into the Pete Carroll tree once to decidedly middling results – there were positive moments, all lost in the shuffle – USC has reached back to grab another limb, bringing Steve Sarkisian home from Washington to serve as Lane Kiffin's permanent replacement.

The other prodigal son returns to clean up his brother's mess – though it's not too messy, to be fair.

Things spiraled out of control, true, leading the university to jettison Kiffin five games into his fourth season with the program; the final straw was a 62-41 loss to Arizona State, one that – with the benefit of hindsight – cost USC a shot at the South Division title.

Yet his replacements, Ed Orgeron and Clay Helton, successfully fought the brutal nature of a midseason coaching change to notch double-digit victories. Amid tumult, ugliness, struggles and commotion, the year ended in expected fashion, with USC among the top teams in the Pac-12 and the top 20 nationally.

So you can sense the expectations growing. Sarkisian faces many of the same hurdles that stymied Kiffin's once-promising turn: great expectations and limited scholarships, notably, with the latter a continued nuisance. But his tenure begins with a simple premise rooted in positivity:

As bad as it was last year, the Trojans nonetheless notched double-digit wins for the second time in the program's post-Carroll existence. It can't get worse, basically, and even at its worst – and the last two years have been bad, admittedly – USC remained in the national conversation.

It can only get better. That's reason enough to be excited about the Sarkisian era, which kicks off with six games against reigning bowl participants and closes with rivals UCLA and Notre Dame. Here are another few reasons for optimism: Agholor, Cravens, Kessler, Williams and Pullard.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION :

USC must get tougher between the ears, bouncing back against adversity rather than crumpling, which was obviously the case in 2012. I think USC does rebound, though not to an extreme degree. My take: USC wins nine or 10 games during the regular season, starting strong before encountering some difficulties against Notre Dame, Oregon State and Stanford.

2013 RECAP :

In a nutshell: Four head coaches in a 65-day span: Kiffin, Orgeron, Helton and Sarkisian. In between, the Trojans managed to reach the 10-win mark for the second time in three years and the ninth time since 2002, not counting the 2005 season since vacated as a result of NCAA sanctions. This was a team that won games on defense, surprisingly, given the positive feelings surrounding Marqise Lee and the Trojans' offense heading into the opener. Though the Arizona State game ran off the rails, USC held nine opponents to 20 points or less, successfully bottling up Oregon State, Stanford and Fresno State, among others. By year's end, one was left with a simple thought – if painful, in many ways: What if USC had made a coaching change following the 2012 season?

High point: Beating Stanford on Nov. 16.

Low point: Arizona State was hideous, if beneficial in hindsight. Another loss to UCLA remains hard to stomach.

Tidbit: Here's something ironic to consider: Kiffin is just one of two USC coaches during the modern era to never suffer a non-winning season. The other was Jesse Hill, who went 45-17-1 from 1951-56. Pete Carroll went 6-6 in 2001, John Robinson went 6-6 in 1996 and John McKay went 4-6 and 4-5-1 in 1960 and 1961, respectively.

Tidbit (repeat edition): USC will open its season against Fresno State after meeting the Bulldogs in December's Las Vegas Bowl. This marks just the fifth time in program history the Trojans will meet the same team in back-to-back games over consecutive seasons, joining Arizona in 1916 and 1917, Los Angeles High School in 1907 and 1908, Pomona in 1900 and 1901, and Cal Tech in 1893 and 1894.

ARBITRARY TOP FIVE LIST :

Alabama kickers

1. Leigh Tiffin
2. Philip Doyle
3. Michael Proctor
4. Van Tiffin
5. Peter Kim

PLAYERS TO WATCH :

Offense: The best receiver on USC's roster last fall wasn't Marqise Lee, against all expectations, but rather Nelson Agholor (56 receptions for 918 yards), who enters his junior season not just as the Trojans' clear go-to target but a strong All-American candidate. While his impact has been varied thus far – he's a demon in the return game, as we'll discuss below – look for that to change in 2014: Agholor will become the focal point of USC's passing game, working in concert with a second-year starting quarterback and putting up some of the strongest totals of any pass-catcher in college football. With players like Agholor at the skill positions, USC is going to put many opponents inside and out of conference play into a bind.

The rest of the receiver corps will follow Agholor's lead. While there's some question marks about the lack of proven production found among the secondary targets, there's clear and unquestioned athletic ability: George Farmer's a player, though he needs to stay healthy; sophomore Darreus Rogers (22 for 257) seems almost certain to nab a starting role; Victor Blackwell is poised to add quality depth behind Agholor; true freshman Ajene Harris has had a fabulous offseason, setting the rookie up for the starting role in the slot; and Steven Mitchell, like Farmer, is going to hold a key role if healthy. Then there are the three rookies, each with beautiful recruiting credentials and the athleticism to contribute on both sides of the ball: John Smith, Adoree Jackson and Rahshead Johnson. This offensive staff has the blueprint for getting Smith and Jackson involved in the passing game. At tight end, USC should opt for the committee approach of senior Randall Telfer and Chris Wilson with Jalen Cope-Fitzpatrick academically ineligible for the season.

Cody Kessler is going to have a really strong season. Now, it'll be under the radar, to a degree – or as far under the radar as USC's starting quarterback can ever fly. This is because of Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley, if not Taylor Kelly, and the fact that Kessler will struggle to land attention outside of the Pac-12. But the staff's record with the position, the talent at wide receiver, the experience in the backfield and Kessler's own growth during the second half of last season helps to paint the junior as a quarterback set to blossom as a second-year starter. Check out his improvement: Kessler tossed 12 touchdowns against just two interceptions during the final seven games of last season, outplaying some touted competition – Sean Mannion, Kevin Hogan, Derek Carr – in leading the Trojans to a 6-1 close. There's something to be said of a quarterback with Kessler's physical gifts after such a lights-on stretch.

It'll be fun to watch Sarkisian and Helton, who continues as USC's coordinator, work through a backfield that could go five deep, counting a pair of fullbacks with ball-carrying ability. The running game will roll through junior Buck Allen (774 yards and 14 touchdowns), a revelation last fall, and fellow junior Tre Madden (703 yards); this is a really nice pair, with Allen very much in line for a 1,000-yard campaign after bursting through during the final month of last season. What will be interesting – knowing that Allen and Madden are very strong – is seeing what USC does with sophomore Justin Davis (361 yards), who had a very nice debut before being sidelined late, and with fullbacks Soma Vainuku and Jahleel Pinner. Both are very, very good traditional fullbacks, but if Sarkisian shies away from the position I think Vainuku and Pinner can contribute as bigger-size options on shorter conversions.

Defense: There's some serious wattage on defense, befitting the program's Hollywood roots, but this star power is tempered by the still-present concerns over depth. It's also felt on offense, to be fair, but the offense seems deeper than the defense. Consider, for example: Smith and Jackson may be extra pieces on offense – icing on the cake, I'd say, though both could be special from the start – but each is viewed as a key contributor in the secondary. It's a somewhat similar story up front, where general depth issues and some battles with injury could lead to some major roadblocks should one of the projected top six or seven miss any extended time during the season. Then there's this idea: USC hired a really great defensive coordinator in Justin Wilcox. Perhaps that's the biggest story of all.

There are two stars, both All-Americans, on this defense. The first is junior end Leonard Williams (74 tackles, 13.5 for loss), the most impressive total-package lineman in college football and, just perhaps, the nation's most impressive defender, period. He's everything you'd need: Williams is 290 pounds but moves like he's 40 pounds lighter, balancing immense strength and leverage with a brutally quick and near-unstoppable first step. Look for Wilcox to tweak and alter the makeup of his 3-4 base set in an effort to create and exploit mismatches with Williams, sliding him inside and out as the key cog in the Trojans' front seven.

Williams is one of three returning starters up front, joining junior nose tackle Antwaun Woods and senior end J.R. Tavai (56 tackles, 8.0 for loss), with Tavai occupying the Trojans' hybrid-end role geared toward carving out pressure in the backfield – something he did fairly well last year despite his size and previous experience along the interior. If USC wants to get a little more burst off the edge, Wilcox could shuffle Tavai and sophomore Scott Felix, who seems built for the position. The Trojans also have two intriguing options at tackle: Delvon Simmons is eligible after transferring in from Texas Tech – he has huge potential – and JUCO transfer Claude Pelon seems very much like an immediate-impact contributor. My major concern is a lack of depth, and it's felt here more than anywhere else on the defense. To create an optimal rotation, USC is going to need help from reserves such as Greg Townsend and Cody Temple; neither has lived up to expectations, whether due to injuries or general ineffectiveness.

Tavai will occupy one of the two outside spots in Wilcox's hybrid-based 3-4 look. But with sophomore Jabari Ruffin lost for the season with a knee injury, USC will need to find a new answer on the strong side. One option would be Felix, who has the athleticism to move in space. What's obvious is that USC will need help from February's recruiting in terms of creating depth at both outside spots. Tavai and Starr, among others, will flank the Trojans' leader, senior Hayes Pullard (94 tackles, 5.5 for loss), who enters his fourth season in the starting lineup as an all-conference lock. Pullard will be joined inside by junior Anthony Sarao (44 tackles) and senior Lamar Dawson, with Sarao the starter until Dawson proves he's fully recovered from last year's knee injury. If at full strength, however, I think Dawson's the better option – though Sarao remains a key cog on the second level.

I think sophomore Su'a Cravens (52 tackles, 4 interceptions) is ready to explode – not a year from now and not at some in November but today, right now, and with force. I know he had some off moments last year, thrust as he was into the starting lineup, but the potential is simply incalculable: Cravens looks very much like an all-timer – no pressure, by the way – and seems ready to embrace those expectations, delivering along the back end in the mold of this program's long line of greats at the position. Any preseason all-anything team must have Cravens listed front and center.

He's the linchpin of a secondary that's going to need help from a handful-plus of true and redshirt freshmen. There are those three rookies listed at wide receiver, for one; Smith and Jackson may stay on offense in the long run, though each could dabble in the secondary as newcomers, and Johnson seems poised to contribute from the jump at cornerback and nickel back. The Trojans will need that help behind starting cornerbacks Josh Shaw (67 tackles, 4 interceptions) and Kevon Seymour (48 tackles), I believe, so look for Johnson and fellow rookie Jonathan Lockett to join redshirt freshman Chris Hawkins as the top reserves. At safety, USC should team Cravens with fellow sophomore Leon McQuay III (19 tackles), who had his own down periods last fall but brings similar potential to the starting lineup.

Special teams: After a disappointing start to last season, senior kicker Andre Heidari really turned the corner both on field goals and kickoffs during the home stretch. That bodes very well for this coming season. Punter Kris Albarado is far from a boomer, but he did a steady job last fall pining opponents inside the 20-yard line. Then there's Agholor, one of the few returners in college football worth postponing a trip the concession stand. He'll be an All-American in some capacity – either as a receiver or return man.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH :

Offensive line: There are some positives here, with none bigger than simple numbers: USC will have 14 scholarship linemen in the fold this fall, creating the potential for solid depth in 2014 and laying the foundation for a solid core group moving forward. Another positive: USC is very solid at center, where Max Tuerk is an all-conference candidate, and at left tackle, where Chad Wheeler has cemented his hold on the blind side. From there, however, the line seems very much a work in progress – largely due to a lack of cohesiveness, and it seems more and more likely that this group won't get on the same page before kicking off the season against Fresno State.

That's not to say this line is a lost cause; far from it, in fact. Tuerk and Wheeler provide the foundation at the line's two crucial spots, with Tuerk the unquestioned leader of the entire front – if not the entire offense – and Wheeler a solid protector of Kessler's blind side. The Trojans should also feel very confident in senior Aundray Walker's ability to handle right guard; he played extremely well down the stretch of last fall before suffering an ankle injury. It's even possible to paint a rosy picture at left guard and right tackle: Jordan Simmons could be ready to answer the bell inside, for example, and incoming freshman Toa Lobendahn has been praised for his consistency, while the Trojans should find an answer on the strong side from the group of sophomore Zach Banner, senior Nathan Guertler and true freshman Chris Brown. In total, USC hasn't had this many line options in several years.

GAME(S) TO WATCH :

UCLA: This one's for the South Division and some redemption after back-to-back losses to Jim Mora and the Bruins. In a perfect world – for college football fans, at least – these two close-proximity rivals would stand in the championship conversation. The Trojans must also travel to Stanford and Arizona while dealing with Arizona State and Notre Dame at home.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION :

In a nutshell: USC is similar to Georgia in one important fashion: A healthy USC team is dangerous indeed. Once again, there are fears about the Trojans' depth on both sides of the ball, and, in my opinion, on defense in particular. But I don't know if these fears will manifest themselves if USC's top tier remains healthy and upright; if all hands are on deck, in fact, the only group that seems a bit unsteady in terms of depth is the defensive front, which could call on a former walk-on and some underwhelming underclassmen – even if all were four-star recruits – in reserve roles. But even that comes with a caveat: USC might lack great depth, but remember that Williams, Woods, Tavai and the combination of Simmons and Pelon is the most fearsome in the Pac-12.

The entire defense could be terrific. The second level is going to fit well in Wilcox's scheme, particularly if Tavai continues to impress in the hybrid role, Dawson contributes on the weak side, Pullard remains his all-conference self and Ruffin handles the mental aspect of this scheme on the strong side. With Williams in the fold, this front is going to cause damage. I even think the secondary hits all the right notes: Cravens is a star, McQuay will be improved and the starting cornerbacks experienced. When you think of the offense, consider that Kessler carries enormous confidence into his second season as the Trojans' starter. He'll have weapons at his disposal, from Agholor out wide to a very deep and balanced running game.

I only see three issues. One is the offensive line, which is certainly deeper than in the past few seasons – remember those 14 linemen on scholarship – but unsettled outside of left tackle, center and right guard. I wouldn't feel very comfortable with a line that features as many as three or four true and redshirt freshmen in its two-deep – with perhaps a true freshmen starting at guard. The second is the schedule, which sends the Trojans to Stanford and UCLA; I know the Trojans have Stanford's number, to a degree, but I'd feel better about a late-season matchup, not one on the first Saturday of September. The third is the one that will continue to plague the program until the roster reclaims its pre-sanctions form: USC can't afford to dip too deep down the two-deep. While a healthy USC will be dangerous, the few lingering concerns means it's probably safer to call for a season at or near 10 wins heading into the postseason.

Dream season: USC goes 12-0, wins the Pac-12 title game and reaches the College Football Playoff.

Nightmare season: The Trojans fall back to 7-5, dropping games to Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA and Notre Dame.

UP NEXT :

Who's No. 12? Two-thirds of this team's all-conference picks a season ago came on the offensive side of the ball.