PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers have lost two of three since the All-Star break and head out on a three-game Eastern Conference road trip without All-Star guard Damian Lillard.
The playoff race has actually tightened up, with the Blazers gaining a game in their chase of the reeling Memphis Grizzlies, whom Portland trails by just 2.5 games. Meanwhile, four teams trail the Blazers by two games or less.
It's an exciting race for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and the Blazers are right in the middle of it.
On this week's episode of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast, we gauge our confidence level in Portland's playoff chances, debate what was the worst thing to happen to the Blazers this season, and make predictions for the next four games.
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1. The Blazers have lost two of three since the All-Star break and they're still without Damian Lillard. But they've actually gained a game and a half on the Grizzlies, who have lost four in a row. With 23 games left, Portland trails eighth-place Memphis by just 2.5 games. On a scale of 1-10, what's your confidence level that the Blazers will make the playoffs this season?
Jared: I'll put my confidence level at a 4. I expect Memphis to continue to struggle because of its difficult schedule and injuries to key players. But I think the team that has the best chance of surging past Memphis — and the Blazers — is New Orleans. Zion Williamson is incredible, and the Pelicans have talent, good health and an easier schedule than the Blazers. I'm not counting the Blazers out, but a lot of uncertain things have to turn in Portland's favor. Damian Lillard needs to return in the next few games, and the Blazers need Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back soon, as well, to shore up their depth. Once Lillard and hopefully one or both of Nurkic and Collins are back, I think Portland can go on a run considering their soft schedule. Until Lillard gets back, the Blazers must beat the bad teams on their schedule. They have to stay ahead of the Pelicans, because New Orleans is going to win a lot of games down the stretch and they have the tiebreaker against Portland.
Nate: I’ll say a 2. Not as low as it was during the All-Star break, but I still have very little confidence they’ll finish the season ahead of both Memphis and New Orleans. The things the Blazers need to happen have happened over the last week. Memphis has lost all four of its games since the All-Star break and will continue to have a difficult schedule the rest of the season. Meanwhile, after Thursday’s game against Indiana, the Blazers have a six-game stretch against teams below .500 before they play Memphis again. So, the schedule would suggest Portland can make up ground. But I still believe Memphis is a better team than the Blazers. They beat Portland before the All-Star break and I don’t expect the Blazers will beat Memphis in both of the two remaining matchups this season to make up ground on them head-to-head. And Memphis may not be the team that should worry the Blazers the most. New Orleans is just half a game behind Portland, has won 8 of their last 12 games, has a favorable schedule and owns the tiebreaker over the Blazers.
Orlando: So much of this question revolves around the health of Damian Lillard. If he’s back this week, I like their chances and would put it at a 6 or even a 7. Without him, they are done. The longer it takes for their All-Star to get back, the lower their chances are of making the playoffs. With 23 games left, the 8 seed is there for the taking, especially with 2 games against Memphis in Portland. It’s a 3-4 team race for the final spot. Laugh at me if you want, but I’m actually looking forward to seeing how the race for the 8 seed plays out.
2. We all know the Blazers had higher expectations going into the season and a lot of things have contributed to the team being in the tough spot they're in. What has been the biggest singular thing that happened this season (specific injury, trade, etc.) that put the Blazers in the position they find themselves in?
Nate: I'm going to go with the Rodney Hood injury. Zach Collins' injury was significant, but I think the Blazers were starting to overcome it until Hood tore his Achilles tendon. In the five full games the Blazers had a starting lineup of Hassan Whiteside, Carmelo Anthony, Rodney Hood, CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard, they went 4-1. This was after being 5-12 in the 17 games prior to the lineup being available. The wins came against Chicago (twice), Sacramento and Oklahoma City, so it wasn't the toughest competition. But the offense was starting to find its footing and overwhelm teams, and the statistics bared that out. With that five-man lineup, the Blazers had a 125.3 offensive rating and a +10.1 net rating. That lineup shot 55% from the field and 45% from 3 during that stretch. They were humming and starting to gain confidence and had climbed back to a 9-13 record. Then, Hood got hurt against the Lakers and all that newfound energy was immediately zapped from the team. At that point, it began to feel like this was going to be a season when the Blazers would catch all the bad breaks.
Orlando: How do you narrow this down to one thing? We can point to a lot of different reasons why they are in this position. They lost some games that were inexcusable, the defense has struggled and the offense took a step back, but injuries will always be at the top of the list. So I'm basically choosing between which injury hurt the most. We knew Jusuf Nurkic would be out most of the season. When Zach Collins went down, it was so early in the season that I thought this team would figure it out. When Rodney Hood suffered the Achilles injury, I downplayed the significance of his role on the team, but it was after his injury when I started to consider the idea this was a lost season. He filled a position of need and did it well. Offensively, he was the team’s top shooter at 49% from three. We've seen 21 different starting lineups this season and when I look back at it, the Hood injury played a key role.
Jared: I think Zach Collins' injury was the biggest singular thing that went wrong this season. Nate spoke about it on the podcast before the season began, about the risk of Portland putting so much on Collins' shoulders. In the 86 minutes Collins played this season, the Blazers outscored their opponents by 13.1 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court. But when he got hurt, there was no one to pick up the slack. With all due respect to Carmelo Anthony, since Collins was injured, the Blazers have received negative production from the power forward position for 48 minutes a game. When Anthony is on the court, Portland is outscored by 0.3 points per 100 possessions. The backup minutes are even worse. Going into the season, I thought Pau Gasol and Anthony Tolliver would be good veterans for this team who could provide effective limited minutes backing up both frontcourt positions, and I thought Collins would get some backup minutes at center, too. But Gasol was never a factor and Tolliver was, by one metric, the worst player in the NBA. Down the stretch, Portland has had to get by with players like Caleb Swanigan (-9.3 when he's on the court) and Wenyen Gabriel (-8.2 when he's on the court) in backup roles. So much depended on Collins being able to effectively step into a larger role this season. Removing him from the equation brought the Blazers down like a house of cards.
3. The Blazers play four games between now and our next podcast: tonight at the Indiana Pacers (34-24), Saturday at the Atlanta Hawks (17-43), Monday at the Orlando Magic (26-32) and Wednesday at home against the Washington Wizards (21-36). Which games do the Blazers win and which do they lose?
Orlando: I'm assuming Damian Lillard will be back soon. Casey Holdahl is reporting that Lillard could meet the team in Orlando. If so, I think this is a winning week against a few favorable matchups. I think they lose to the Pacers and reel off three straight wins. Similar to the Pistons win last week, I think they'll have enough to beat the Hawks. The Magic game is a toss-up, so I'll give it to the Blazers. If Lillard is back, they should be able to beat the Wizards, even with the tear Bradley Beal has been on.
Jared: Without Lillard, the Blazers are at a huge disadvantage. The starting lineup has been decent in the three games without him with a +2.7 net rating, but the Blazers are getting run off the court whenever they turn to the bench. That will probably only look worse on the road. I don't expect Lillard to return on this road trip. He might come back against the Magic but I'm not betting on it. I think he'll probably make his return at home against the Wizards. I think the Blazers will go 1-2 without Lillard on this road trip, losing to the Pacers and Magic and beating the Hawks. I think with Lillard (hopefully) back against Washington, I'll give Portland a win at home against the Wizards. So 2-2 in the next four games. The good news? I expect a beat-up Memphis team to keep losing (they've been outscored by 71 points in their past four games) and I think the Pelicans will also go 2-2 over the next four games (wins against the Cavs and Wolves, losses against the Lakers and Mavericks). I think this will still be a tight race when we do this again next week.
Nate: This is tough because we don't know how many of these games Lillard is going to miss. I also need to make up some ground in the season standings, so let's go 2-2. Despite Indiana's recent struggles (3-7 in last 10), I'm going to pick the Pacers against the Lillard-less Blazers. And I'll take Atlanta to also beat Portland in what will be a demoralizing game for fans. I'm making this pick, in part, banking on Lillard not playing. The Hawks have the worst record in the Eastern Conference but have played better over the last 10 games. They've been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season but are 11th in offensive rating over the last 10 games. They took Portland to overtime in their previous matchup this season. So, I'm going to take a flyer on Atlanta. I'll predict Lillard comes back after the loss and leads the Blazers to wins over the Magic and Wizards.
SEASON PREDICTIONS RECORDS
- Jared: 40-16
- Orlando: 37-19
- Nate: 36-20
Jared Cowley is a digital producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Jared has written about the Jazz and Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
