PORTLAND, Ore. — The matchup between Damian Lillard and Russell Westbrook in Portland's first-round series against Oklahoma City has captured the nation’s attention.
For the past couple seasons, Westbrook has been considered the superior player to Lillard among most national fans and media members.
It’s not hard to see why. Westbrook, bold and brash, is a former MVP, has been to the NBA Finals, and ranks second all-time in triple-doubles with 138. Lillard, silent yet fierce, has never finished higher than fourth in MVP voting, hasn’t been past the second round of the playoffs, and has never had a triple-double.
But through the first four games of this series, Lillard has been the better player. That, combined with the obvious contrast in the demeanor of the two stars, has vaulted Lillard ahead of Westbrook in the national discussion of NBA point guard rankings among the national fans and media who serve as decision makers for such arbitrary lists.
SERIES SCHEDULE
- Game 1 (at POR): Blazers 104, Thunder 99 (box score)
- Game 2 (at POR): Blazers 114, Thunder 94 (box score)
- Game 3 (at OKC): Thunder 120, Blazers 108 (box score)
- Game 4 (at OKC): Blazers 111, Thunder 98 (box score)
- Game 5 (at POR): Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., TNT, NBC Sports Northwest
- x-Game 6 (at OKC): Thursday, time TBD, TNT, NBC Sports Northwest
- x-Game 7 (at POR): Saturday, time TBD, TNT, NBC Sports Northwest
- x-if necessary
(Story continues below)
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In the first four games of this series, Lillard is averaging more points (28.8 to 21.3), steals (2.3 to 0.3), blocks (0.5 to 0.3), fewer turnovers (4.0 to 4.5) and is shooting better from the field (44.4% to 30.4%), 3-point line (44.4% to 30.4%) and free-throw line (87.1% to 87.0%). Westbrook has the advantage in rebounds (8.3 to 3.8) and assists (9.8 to 6.0).
Lillard has clearly been better in this series. But is he better than Westbrook overall? Was he better than Westbrook this season? Let’s take a look at some regular-season data to make a determination.
TRADITIONAL STATS
- Points: Lillard 25.8; Westbrook 22.9
- Rebounds: Westbrook 11.1; Lillard 4.6
- Assists: Westbrook 10.7; Lillard 6.9
- Steals: Westbrook 1.9; Lillard 1.1
- Blocks: Westbrook 0.5; Lillard 0.4
- Turnovers: Lillard 2.7; Westbrook 4.5
- Assist/Turnover ratio: Lillard 2.6; Westbrook 2.4
- Field-goal percentage: Lillard 44.4%; Westbrook 42.8%
- 3-point percentage: Lillard 36.9%; Westbrook 29.0%
- Free-throw percentage: Lillard 91.2%; Westbrook 65.6%
During the regular season, Lillard was a better scorer and shooter. Westbrook was a better rebounder and a slightly better defender. Playmaking is a push, because even though Westbrook averages more assists, Lillard's assist-to-turnover ratio is better (2.6 to 2.4).
Advanced analytics help tip the scale in Lillard’s favor. In real plus-minus and player impact plus-minus, Lillard ranks as a Top 10 player in the NBA (ninth in RPM and seventh in PIPM), while Westbrook check in outside the Top 25 (39th in RPM and 26th in PIPM).
REAL PLUS-MINUS
- Offense: Lillard 5.56; Westbrook 2.53
- Defense: Lillard -0.40; Westbrook 0.06
- Overall: Lillard 5.16; Westbrook 2.59
PLAYER IMPACT PLUS-MINUS
- Offense: Lillard 5.2; Westbrook 2.6
- Defense: Lillard 0.5; Westbrook 0.7
- Overall: Lillard 5.7; Westbrook 3.3
Westbrook has the advantage as a rebounder, and he’ll probably always average more assists than Lillard. Before the playoffs began, many would have made the case that Westbrook is a better defender than Lillard, though advanced stats show it’s closer than Lillard’s reputation may have suggested.
But this series has shifted that narrative. Lillard’s defense has been visibly impactful. When he’s on the court, the Blazers have allowed 102.1 points per 100 possessions, while the Thunder have given up 113.7 points per 100 possessions with Westbrook on the floor.
Westbrook’s one establishable advantage is rebounding. But by just about every other metric, Lillard is superior. The debate on that question may have already been settled during the regular season, but this first-round series has settled it.
Both players are phenomenal, among the best at their position, and in the league. But the debate is over. Lillard is better than Westbrook.
Just call him Playoff Chief
Portland Trail Blazers fans appreciate Al-Farouq Aminu. They love him for his grit and his defense and his leadership. He’s better than what shows up in the box score.
But an area where Aminu deserves more recognition, even in Portland, is the consistency with which he elevates his game in the playoffs every season.
Because of the Blazers' playoff failures the past couple seasons, Aminu’s playoff production has often been ignored or dismissed. Now that the Blazers are winning in one of the most visible first-round matchups in the playoffs, people are noticing Aminu more.
In each of his four seasons with the Blazers, Aminu has outperformed his regular-season statistics in the playoffs. During the postseason, Aminu has averaged 5.5 more points per game (14.0 to 9.5), and shot significantly better from both the field (44.9% in the playoffs vs. 41.1% in the regular season) and the 3-point line (40.9% vs. 35.3%).
In 28 career playoff games, Aminu has hit three or more 3-pointers 13 times and scored 20 points or more five times.
REGULAR SEASON VS. PLAYOFFS
- Minutes: 32.0 (Playoffs); 28.9 (Regular season)
- Points: 14.0 (P); 9.5 (RS)
- Rebounds: 8.1 (P); 7.1 (RS)
- Assists: 1.5 (P); 1.5 (RS)
- Steals: 0.8 (P); 1.0 (RS)
- Blocks: 0.9 (P); 0.6 (RS)
- FG: 44.9% (P); 41.1% (RS)
- 3P: 40.9% (P); 35.3% (RS)
- FT: 74.5% (P); 77.1% (RS)
Aminu was instrumental in Portland’s Game 4 win, hitting four 3-pointers and finishing with 19 points and nine rebounds. He’s now averaging 11.0 points and shooting 40% from the 3-point line in the four games against the Thunder, numbers that are both up over his regular-season stats of 9.4 points and 34.3% shooting.
Blazers head coach Terry Stotts says Aminu’s production is noticed by the team, even if it’s ignored by outside observers.
"He does it every night. Sometimes he scores, sometimes he doesn’t but he gives a great effort every night," Stotts said after Game 4. "We ask him to do a lot of things at the defensive end, to rebound. He’s probably a better shooter than people give him credit for. He’s been an important part of our team since he’s been here."
Jared Cowley writes about the Trail Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. He's also the co-host of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast (listen here). You can reach him on Twitter @jaredcowley.