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3-on-3 Blazers: How will Portland fare without McCollum?

How will the Blazers fare without McCollum? Will the team falter down the stretch like it did in 2015 (without Matthews), 2017 (without Nurkic) and 2018 (without Harkless), leading to a noncompetitive first-round playoff loss?
Credit: H.W. Chiu
Portland Trail Blazers' CJ McCollum

PORTLAND, Ore. — For the fourth time in five seasons, the Portland Trail Blazers have suffered an injury to a major contributor in the final stretch of the regular season.

On March 5, 2015, starting shooting guard Wes Matthews tore his achilles and was ruled out for the rest of the season and the playoffs. The Blazers were 40-19 when Matthews was injured, proceeded to lose 12 of their final 22 games, and lost in five games to the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs.

On March 31, 2017, starting center Jusuf Nurkic fractured his leg and was ruled out for the rest of the regular season. The Blazers, who had won 13 of 16 games when Nurkic was hurt, proceeded to lose three of their final seven to end the season. Nurkic returned to play 16 minutes in Game 3 of the Blazers' first-round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors, but Portland was swept in four games.

On March 28, 2018, starting small forward Maurice Harkless had knee surgery and was ruled out for the rest of the regular season. The Blazers, who had won 17 of 20 games when Harkless was injured, went on to lose five of their final eight games. Harkless came back and played in Games 2 and 3 of the Blazers' first-round playoff series against the New Orleans Pelicans, but he wasn't fully healthy, and the Blazers were swept in four games.

This season, on March 16, starting shooting guard CJ McCollum was injured in the third quarter of the Blazers' 108-103 loss to the San Antonio Spurs. The next day, an MRI showed McCollum has a popliteus strain in his left knee. The team said he'd be reevaluated in a week.

How will the Blazers fare without CJ McCollum in the regular season? Will the team falter down the stretch like it did in 2015, 2017 and 2018, leading to a noncompetitive first-round playoff loss?

That's the primary topic of this week's 3-on-3 Blazers podcast. We also talk about Zach Collins and his role with the Blazers the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs, and make predictions for Portland's next three games.

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LISTEN: 3-on-3 Blazers podcast | Are the Trail Blazers doomed without CJ?

Listen to the most recent edition of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast:

1. CJ McCollum will miss at least the next two games, but probably more. Can the Blazers weather his absence during the rest of the regular season? What if his injury keeps him out of playoff games? Who needs to step up to fill the void?

Nate: There were four situations that could have killed Portland’s playoff hopes before the postseason began: 1) Lillard injury; 2) McCollum injury; 3) Nurkic injury; 4) Drop to the No. 8 seed and play Golden State in the first round. If McCollum’s injury lingers into the postseason, the Blazers have no chance at advancing to the second round. Without McCollum, the Blazers just need to stay afloat and not have a late-season collapse that drops into a potential first-round matchup with Golden State. For the Blazers to stay in the 3-6 seed conversation, they need a team effort to fill the void. I don’t think it falls squarely on one person. The Pacers game was a perfect example. Different guys stepped up at different points in the game. Harkless, Aminu, Curry and Hood all scored in double figures and made 3-pointers. In addition to talent, the Blazers have a favorable schedule and I think they’ll be able to hold their ground over the final 12 games of the season, even if McCollum is out for all of them.

Jared: I think the Blazers can get by without McCollum for the rest of the regular season. Despite stumbling late against the Pacers, they still played well and beat one of the Eastern Conference's better teams without him. I believe Rodney Hood and Seth Curry can combine to provide a reasonable facsimile of what McCollum provides. The Blazers are also fortunate that their schedule is relatively easy down the stretch. Seven of their 12 remaining games are against sub-.500 teams. Even without McCollum, I still think Portland can reach 50 wins and stay competitive in the race for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Once the playoffs begin, it's a different story. There aren't any easy opponents in the playoffs. Even with McCollum, I'd probably put Portland's odds of getting out of the first round of the playoffs at about 50-50. Take away one of the Blazers' three best players and you have to be realistic about their playoff chances. Let's hope McCollum heals quickly and can return to full strength by the time the playoffs begin.

Orlando: What a scary moment for Rip City. Thankfully, it wasn’t as bad as it looked for the Blazers and CJ McCollum. It could have been so much worse and that’s kind of the way I feel about the timing of it all. The Blazers should be able to weather the storm if he’s out for the next couple of weeks. The schedule softens up. They’ve got 12 games left in the regular season and seven of those are against teams with losing records. Win those games and Portland gets to 50 wins and stays in that 4-7 seed range for the playoffs. If he misses playoff games or isn’t back to 100 percent by then, Portland is done in the first round. I don’t think one player on this roster can step up to completely fill the void he leaves, but collectively they can. It starts with Maurice Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu and Rodney Hood. Two of them have to elevate their game. Any combination of Seth Curry, Jake Layman or Enes Kanter scoring in double figures will do the trick. We know what Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic are going to give you pretty much every night. This is on the bench and role players to step up. Portland needs that more than ever, especially if they plan to play meaningful hoops in April.

2. Zach Collins is the only bench player with a positive plus-minus since the All-Star break. He's playing more recently, with his minutes per game up to 18.4 over the past five games after averaging 5.3 in the previous eight. What do you make of Collins' importance to the Blazers the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs?

Jared: I wrote about Collins earlier this week for KGW.com. Read the article here. To make a long article short, the combination of Collins and Enes Kanter has been an effective duo for Portland. Basically, Collins' defense helps ameliorate Kanter's deficiencies on that end of the court, which allows the Blazers to take advantage of Kanter's considerable strengths on offense and rebounding. The striking data point from the article is this: In the 78 minutes Kanter and Collins have played together since Kanter joined the team, the Blazers are outscoring teams by 18 points per 100 possessions. In the past five games, Portland has outscored teams by 28 points per 100 possessions in the 51 minutes those two shared the court. What I didn't include in the article is how bad Kanter has been in other two-man lineups. Look at the Blazers' net rating when Kanter is paired with every other member of the Blazers' rotation:

  • Kanter/Aminu: -30.8
  • Kanter/McCollum: -14.4
  • Kanter/Turner: -13.4
  • Kanter/Hood: -12.6
  • Kanter/Layman: -11.1
  • Kanter/Lillard: -8.8
  • Kanter/Curry: -7.3
  • Kanter/Harkless: +17.4

With a nod to Harkless, it does seem like Collins is the difference. If this relatively small sample size holds up, Collins could be the key to unlocking Kanter's positive impact for the Blazers. That makes him pretty important.

Orlando: Most Blazers fans believe in Zach Collins and want to see him make an impact. The problem has generally been consistency and foul trouble. When he’s on, Collins provides a boost off the bench that very few players on this roster possess. He’s got great instincts on defense and can change the game with one block. When his shot is dropping, he’s tough to defend and he creates space for others. It’s all hands on deck right now. Collins can have a major impact on games and he’s got to do it over the coming weeks.

Nate: Collins, at least for the time being, has been a great complement to Enes Kanter. The Blazers always need someone on the floor who can protect the rim. Nurkic takes care of that role when he’s out there. But when Kanter is the lone big man on the floor, teams attack him and often with success. That was most notably shown in the overtime loss against Oklahoma City. In the games against New Orleans and Indiana, Collins has filled that role of rim protector when paired with Kanter. It’s a combo that plays to both players’ strengths. Collins isn’t a consistent offensive threat yet but has overcome his foul issues to be a force on the defensive end, much like what we saw at the very beginning of the season. This allows Kanter to do what he does best: be the offensive threat that Collins isn’t. Collins provided a spark in the wins against New Orleans (four blocks) and Indiana (two blocks). It’s a small sample size but I’m sure Stotts plans to play it out the rest of the regular season to see if it’s a reliable option for the playoffs.

3. We all already picked Portland to beat Dallas tonight. The Blazers play three more games between now and the next time we meet: Saturday vs. the Detroit Pistons, Monday vs. the Brooklyn Nets and Wednesday at the Chicago Bulls. Which games do the Blazers win and which do they lose?

Orlando: This is a favorable week for the Blazers. They’ve owned the East sporting a 20-5 record against those teams. The Blazers play well at home. I like the Blazers to go 3-0 this week. Detroit has been tough lately winning seven of their last 10, while the Brooklyn Blazers — I mean Brooklyn Nets — are coming off an epic comeback victory over the Kings. These aren’t gimmes, but I’ll roll the dice on the Blazers in Rip City.  

Nate: Portland goes 2-1. Although Detroit isn’t a very good road team, I’m going to pick the Pistons to beat the Blazers. Blake Griffin’s unique skillset, a big man with ball-handling skills, has given Portland trouble in the past. I’m going to say Griffin has a big game, the Blazers don’t shoot the 3-ball as well as they did against Indiana, and Detroit picks up a surprise road victory over Portland. I think the Blazers bounce back though with wins against Brooklyn and Chicago.

Jared: Detroit has rallied nicely. On Jan. 29, they were 21-28. Since then, the Pistons have won 15 of 21 to become relevant again. Where they haven't rallied quite as nicely is on the road. Even during this impressive stretch, they're only 5-5 away from home, including three straight road losses against the Nets, Heat and Cavaliers by a combined 69 points. The Pistons are good, but the Blazers should pick up the win against them at home. Speaking of bad road teams, the Nets are in the midst of a grueling seven-game road trip and are 1-3 so far. I'll pick the Blazers to beat the weary Nets at the Moda Center. The Bulls have won just 20 games all season, are 14-30 at home, and have lost seven of nine. They're not a competitive NBA team right now. Blazers go 3-0.

SEASON PREDICTION RECORDS

  • Jared: 40-27
  • Nate: 39-28
  • Orlando: 39-28

WATCH: 3-on-3 Blazers Podcast Live Recording

MEET THE 3-ON-3 BLAZERS TEAM

Jared Cowley (above, left) is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Jared has written about the Jazz and Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.

Orlando Sanchez (above, center) is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.

Nate Hanson (above, right) is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.

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